New Orleans, a city that has seen extremely heavy rainfall and even a tornado in the past several months, could wind up in the core of the eventual system’s swath of flooding.
It is not out of the question that some locales could see up to a foot of water when the eventual system comes ashore. The National Hurricane Center estimates a 90 percent chance of eventual development into either a tropical depression or storm.
On Wednesday, the incipient system was looking a bit meaner as it meandered over the Gulf of Mexico. Scattered downpours and thunderstorms were visible with roiling thunderheads tracing a broad arc. A few more thunderstorms were located in the Bay of Campeche.
A diffuse swirl could be discerned somewhere over the southwestern gulf, marking a fledgling area of low pressure around which the storms were slowly orbiting. As more thunderstorms develop and their updrafts transfer heat vertically, that low pressure zone will deepen, or intensify.
That will be an integral step to the formation of an eventual tropical depression or, if winds reach 39 mph, tropical storm.
The overall mass of thunderstorms is owed to a CAG, or Central American Gyre. They are large-scale, weak regions of spin that allow thunderstorms to fester. This particular CAG is not overly impressive and is a bit farther north of where most CAGS usually establish themselves. That said, it is likely a more concentrated lobe of spin, or vorticity, that will gel in the coming day or two and help nucleate a tropical depression.
Computer models indicate the most likely region for this to occur would be in the central Gulf of Mexico sometime in the late Thursday or early Friday time-frame. From there, the system may slowly strengthen, but water temperatures in the gulf, while mild, are not sufficiently warm to support robust intensification or a higher-end storm.
Instead, it is likely that a tropical storm will make its way ashore late Friday into Saturday, packing winds that bring minor impacts, and perhaps a modest storm surge, which is the rise in ocean water above normally dry land at the coast. The most likely location for any eventual storm landfall would be between the Texas-Louisiana border and New Orleans.
The biggest impacts will come near and east of the center, however. That is where the heaviest rain will fall. Heavy downpours training, or repeatedly moving over the same areas, will bring a widespread 4 to 8 inches with localized 12-inch amounts.
That will lead to urban and small-stream flooding, as well as pockets of flash flooding. Much of Louisiana has already seen copious rainfall this spring, including New Orleans, where 27.1 inches have fallen since April 1. That is nearly twice the average.
Baton Rouge and Lake Charles, both of which found themselves under flash flood emergencies amid deadly flooding mid to late May, have tallied 33.14 inches and 29.85 inches respectively. That is a record in both cities. Some communities have seen more than three feet.
Indications suggest heavy rain will continue falling inland as well, particularly over the weekend in southern Mississippi, much of Alabama, and the southern Appalachians in eastern Tennessee and extreme northwest Georgia. Some heavy rainfall could affect the Carolinas as well as Virginia and Maryland on Monday into Tuesday depending on the system’s track and interaction with a cold front.
Areas along the central Gulf Coast could also be primed to deal with isolated to widely scattered tornadoes, particularly from the New Orleans area eastward toward Mobile Bay, assuming the eventual track is similar to what models suggest currently.
Experts have predicted that 2021 could feature yet another unusually active hurricane season in the Atlantic for the sixth year in a row.
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June 17, 2021 at 01:44AM
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Tropical storm likely to form in gulf and bring flooding rain to Louisiana - The Washington Post
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