The upper-air flow is right to bring Michigan two weather features in the next week - wildfire smoke and thunderstorms.
We are in a “northwest flow” pattern, where the jetstream runs from the Pacific Northwest through southern Canada and then into the Great Lakes. This is a classic upper-air pattern that brings the fast-moving clumps of thunderstorms through Michigan in mid-summer.
Jetstream forecast from Tuesday, July 20 to Sunday, July 25.
This is exactly what we are expecting this evening, Thursday night/Friday morning and again Saturday or Saturday night.
The thunderstorm complexes in this type of air flow in late July blow through in a few hours, but can bring quick, damaging wind gusts. At the moment there isn’t an official forecast for severe weather out of these storms, but the second and third storms have the look of a severe pattern.
Today’s thunderstorms will be very isolated and only zoom through the far eastern part of Lower Michigan. The storms will move straight from north to south.
Radar forecast from noon today to midnight tonight.
It shouldn’t even rain one-half hour in any one spot in the Thumb, the northeast Lake Huron shoreline and the east side of Detroit.
Thursday night’s storms should be more potent, and cover a larger area. They could also last into Friday morning over southeast Lower Michigan. Below is the 6-hour rain forecast from 8 a.m. Thursday to 8 p.m. Friday.
Rain forecast, showing six-hour rain totals from 8 a.m. Thursday to 8 p.m. Friday, using the European Model.
There should be a fairly wide strip of storms producing over one-half inch of rain to maybe as much as one inch of rain.
The third storm system looks like it will be the strongest and largest rain producer. Remember, even with this third storm system, the movement will be fast. Any one spot should only have a couple of hours of rain and thunder.
Rain forecast in six hour increments from 8 a.m. Saturday to 8 a.m. Sunday.
The smoke in the air can also be brought down to the ground during rainfall. You may wonder who has a bonfire nearby your location as it starts to rain this week. It’s probably the smoky air aloft being brought down to the surface.
I will be watching the clumps of thunderstorms closely, and alert you if the storms could become severe. You can bookmark here to go to the page with severe weather updates.
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July 20, 2021 at 10:51PM
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Smoky jetstream will bring 3 rounds of storms to Michigan - MLive.com
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