“There is a risk of tropical storm conditions, storm surge, and rainfall impacts along the Florida Peninsula Monday night through Wednesday and the coasts of Georgia and the Carolinas Wednesday and Thursday,” the National Hurricane Center said Sunday. “However, uncertainty in the forecast remains larger than usual due to Elsa’s potential interaction with Cuba.”
The prospect of tropical storm conditions is a particular concern for South Florida after part of the Champlain Towers South condo in Surfside, Fla., collapsed more than a week ago.
A tropical storm watch has been issued for the Florida Keys and probably will be expanded north into South Florida during Sunday.
The Hurricane Center’s latest forecast projects Elsa to be in the vicinity of Florida’s west coast on Tuesday, making landfall Tuesday night near Tampa with peak winds of around 60 mph. However, this forecast could change and the storm could have an impact on areas at considerable distances from its center. Downpours and gusty winds could affect much of the Florida Peninsula.
Elsa forecast: Sunday into Monday
At 8 a.m. Sunday, Elsa was centered about 45 miles east-northeast of Jamaica and was headed west-northwest at 13 mph. Its maximum sustained winds of 65 mph had held steady since Saturday.
The Hurricane Center wrote that the storm appeared “a little better organized” in satellite imagery, as its center was underneath the most intense thunderstorms.
Tropical storm warnings were in effect for southern Haiti, Jamaica and much of the eastern two-thirds of Cuba.
The worst of the storm conditions should end in Haiti during the first half of Sunday and in Jamaica on Sunday night. Conditions will deteriorate in eastern Cuba during the day Sunday, central Cuba on Sunday night and western Cuba early Monday, before improving east to west between Monday afternoon and Tuesday. Radar imagery as the storm passes over Cuba is available here.
The Hurricane Center predicts 4 to 8 inches of rain in southern Haiti and Jamaica. In Cuba, 5 to 10 inches of rain are forecast. Localized amounts of up to 15 inches are possible throughout this zone, especially in the high terrain, causing flash floods and mudslides, the Hurricane Center wrote.
Elsa is also expected to generate a storm surge, or rise in ocean water above normally dry land, of several feet along the southern coasts of Haiti and Cuba, which could inundate low-lying areas.
Elsa forecast: Monday night through Thursday
The Hurricane Center currently projects the center of Elsa to reach the Florida Keys overnight Monday and then be in the vicinity of the west coast of the Florida Peninsula on Tuesday and into Tuesday night, packing maximum winds of 60 mph, before crossing northern Florida and then heading up the Southeast coast Wednesday and Thursday. But the storm’s intensity remains somewhat of a wild card as it has yet to cross some hostile terrain.
Land, especially mountainous terrain, tends to weaken tropical storms. However, Brian McNoldy, a hurricane researcher at the University of Miami and Capital Weather Gang contributor, said it is possible Elsa will avoid land interaction with Jamaica, “weaving into the Jamaica Channel” and remaining “over warm water until its landfall in Cuba later today.”
After that, it’s possible Elsa eludes Cuba’s higher terrain “and continues over very warm water until the much flatter central Cuba area,” McNoldy said. This scenario could allow Elsa to remain a strong tropical storm as it approaches the Florida Keys.
The Hurricane Center said the storm will have a short window to gain strength over the Florida Straits and eastern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday after crossing Cuba, but that wind shear would probably limit how strong it will get.
Most computer models do not predict Elsa to regain hurricane strength at this time.
Tropical storm-force winds could reach the Florida Keys as soon as Monday afternoon, South Florida by Monday night, and the central Florida Peninsula, including Tampa, on Tuesday.
“Rainfall from Elsa will impact portions of the Florida Keys and Florida Peninsula Monday through Wednesday,” the Hurricane Center wrote. “Amounts of 2 to 4 inches with localized maximum amounts up to 6 inches will be possible, which may result in isolated flash, urban, and minor river flooding.”
Storm surge could push 1 to 3 feet of ocean water above normally dry land at the coast, mainly along the western peninsula, causing minor to moderate coastal flooding.
In addition, landfalling tropical storms can produce tornadoes, which could be risk over Florida especially on Tuesday.
By Wednesday, Elsa is expected to exit Florida and begin to come up the Southeast coast. It could bring gusty winds and a swath of heavy rain from coastal Georgia to the eastern Carolinas and southeast Virginia, perhaps clipping the Delmarva, before heading out to sea by Thursday night.
An unusual and record-setting storm
According to Colorado State University hurricane researcher Philip Klotzbach, Elsa’s maturation into a hurricane occurred farther east than any other named storm so early in the year since 1933.
“The fact that Elsa became a hurricane where it did and when it did is probably the most striking and remarkable aspect of it so far,” McNoldy wrote in an email.
McNoldy noted that the only other two seasons when hurricanes formed in a similar location at this time of year were 1993 and 2005, two of the most active Atlantic hurricane seasons on record.
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