The spring of most years divisible by four is rife with speculation about the vice presidential choice of the opposition party. The selection invariably isn't made until days before the presidential nomination.
This time, however, may be different.
There may not be a convention; Joe Biden
Joe BidenWarren hits Trump: He's trying to turn a health crisis into 'a political rally for himself' Republicans plow ahead with Russia origins probe Senate battle hinges on four races MORE has wrapped up the Democratic nomination earlier than usual and the Pandemic-necessary isolation has eliminated any stump campaigning.
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Moreover, there's a void of political news, so there's more focus on one of the big uncertainties. It's a good rationalization for a column anyway.
First, three realities about the vice presidential selection:
For Biden, it would be someone younger — he'd be the oldest president in U.S. history — who could generate excitement among important constituencies and credibly be seen as stepping into presidential shoes. He's committed to picking a woman, and there seems to be five seriously discussed contenders.
Some activists point to Georgia's Stacey Abrams, the 47-year-old African American who would have won the Governor's race in 2018 if Republicans hadn't effectively suppressed some votes.
This would not be a smart choice. Abrams is a talented politician with a bright future, though unfortunately she chose not to run for one of two Georgia U.S. Senate seats up this year. But she has never been elected to anything more than a state rep's seat and has no Washington or national security experience. That — being a heartbeat away from the presidency — would not be reassuring.
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Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer has won plaudits for her handling of the coronavirus pandemic, which has hit her state especially hard; she has been subjected to insults from Trump, which most Democrats consider a badge of honor.
Michigan is part of that blue wall of industrial states, along with Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, that gave Trump his victory in 2016. To repeat, it has been 60 years since a running mate spelled the difference in a state, and Whitmer is devoid of any Washington or foreign policy experience — not much more reassuring a heartbeat away from the Oval than Abrams.
Amy Klobuchar
Amy KlobucharBiden campaign seeks to let Sanders keep his delegates in unusual move Key senators negotiating potential deal to allow remote Senate hearings Democrats press USDA to create rural coronavirus task force MORE, the senior Senator from Minnesota, is the favorite of some mainstream moderate Democrats, who contend she would help with centrist swing voters and especially in the critical Midwest battleground. But swing voters are little influenced by a running mate. While Klobuchar might help in reliably Democratic Minnesota, she finished a distant fifth in this year's Iowa presidential caucuses — so much for the Midwestern draw.
Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren
Elizabeth WarrenWarren hits Trump: He's trying to turn a health crisis into 'a political rally for himself' Coronavirus steals Trump economic edge Pelosi appoints Rep. Donna Shalala to coronavirus oversight panel MORE might energize some reluctant left-wingers in the fall. Her intellectual heft and quick mind should intimidate Mike Pence
Michael (Mike) Richard PenceSunday shows preview: Lawmakers weigh in as US eyes phased reopening of economy Pence travels out West to address Air Force Academy graduates Overnight Health Care: White House says US has enough tests for phase one | Trump defends protesters challenging social distancing | Hospitals fear being shortchanged on virus funding MORE in any vice presidential debate.
Remember those debates are pretty irrelevant.
If elected, Warren's replacement would be chosen by the state's Republican Governor for the critical first several months of 2021. Most important is whether Biden and Warren would be comfortable together governing; she's not a natural number two.
That leaves California Sen. Kamala Harris
Kamala Devi Harris13 senators join Harris letter urging Mnuchin to exempt coronavirus checks from private debt collection Biden told to think economy with VP pick Democratic senators: Airlines sitting on billion in 'customer cash' MORE. Her once bright presidential prospects flamed out as she lacked a coherent message and competent campaign. Still, she can be an effective campaigner and advocate, is able, and does have a little national security experience.
The Sanders wing isn't crazy about the first-term California Senator, but they'd be hard pressed to attack the first African-American woman on a national ticket.
There may be others, long shots like Florida Rep. Val Demings
Valdez (Val) Venita DemingsThe Hill's Coronavirus Report: Senior Pa. banking official calls for another T package; Trump tips hat to govs Biden hosts potential VP pick Gretchen Whitmer on podcast Biden associates reach out to Holder about VP search MORE or Nevada Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto
Catherine Marie Cortez MastoBiden hosts potential VP pick Gretchen Whitmer on podcast Biden associates reach out to Holder about VP search Five Latinas who could be Biden's running mate MORE. Biden doesn't have an easy or natural choice. On balance, Harris may be the best fit.
Al Hunt is the former executive editor of Bloomberg News. He previously served as reporter, bureau chief and Washington editor for the Wall Street Journal. For almost a quarter century he wrote a column on politics for The Wall Street Journal, then the International New York Times and Bloomberg View. Follow him on Twitter @AlHuntDC.
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