UPDATE (Saturday, Aug. 28): Hurricane Ida continues to strengthen, on track to slam Louisiana with dangerous winds and storm surge
Tropical Storm Ida, the ninth named storm of the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season, is expected to take aim at the U.S. Gulf Coast and could slam into that region as a major hurricane, forecasters from the National Hurricane Center said Friday morning.
Even though they expect Ida to weaken to a tropical depression after making landfall this weekend, forecasters say the storm’s remnants could drift across the central region of the country and make their way to the Mid-Atlantic region.
UPDATE (1:25 p.m. Friday): The National Hurricane Center says Ida has already strengthened into a hurricane, as of 1:15 p.m., packing top sustained winds of 75 mph, and tropical storm conditions are occurring on Cayo Largo, Cuba.
As of now, with Ida spinning more than 1,800 miles away from our area, forecasters can’t pinpoint the long-range path of this storm with certainty. But based on computer guidance models, they can’t rule out the possibility that New Jersey could get soaked with rain from whatever moisture is left from Ida.
“By the middle of next week, what is currently Tropical Storm Ida should be a tropical depression somewhere over the Gulf Coast or Tennessee Valley, and will make a run at the Mid-Atlantic,” the National Weather Service’s regional office in New Jersey said in its Friday forecast discussion.
“Tropical moisture associated with it lifts towards the area and may bring another round of showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain to the region sometime late Tuesday through Wednesday,” the office said.
However, that scenario depends on the storm’s future track, which is “quite uncertain right now, as it could pass well south of the region,” the weather service noted.
The bottom line: We won’t know whether we will get heavy rain, or any rain at all, from Ida until the storm makes landfall and its future path becomes more certain.
Forecasters are concerned about the potential impacts from Ida because New Jersey has been inundated with heavy rain during the past two months — and got pounded by torrential rain and widespread flooding last weekend when moisture from Tropical Storm Henri saturated our region.
ALSO: Here’s where our rain-soaked summer ranks so far
In addition, more rain showers and thunderstorms could drop additional rain on the Garden State on Friday, Saturday and early Sunday because of a slow-moving frontal boundary. This threat of heavy rain has prompted the National Weather Service to issue a flash flood watch in 19 of the state’s 21 counties.
The watch, which is not as urgent as a warning, is active from 2 p.m. Friday through 2 a.m. Sunday.
Areas shaded in dark green are under a flash flood watch from early Friday afternoon, Aug. 27, until early Sunday morning, Aug. 29, 2021. The small area in light green is under a flood warning because of minor flooding expected along the Passaic River in Pine Brook.National Weather Service
Ida’s latest forecast track
As of 11 a.m. Friday, Tropical Storm Ida’s center was swirling about 75 miles southeast of the Isle of Youth and about 200 miles east-southeast of the western tip of Cuba, the National Hurricane Center said.
Ida grew stronger from early Friday morning, now packing top sustained winds of 65 mph.
If Ida’s sustained winds reach 74 mph, the storm will be upgraded to a category 1 hurricane. Forecasters say Ida will likely move near or over the Isle of Youth and western Cuba as its strengthens later Friday, then push its way into the southeastern and central Gulf of Mexico Friday night and Saturday.
Based on the latest forecast track, Ida is expected to make landfall along the northern Gulf coast of the United States on Sunday, and forecasters believe it will be a major hurricane — with top sustained winds as strong as 111 to 129 mph — as it approaches the coast.
This map shows the forecast track of Tropical Storm Ida as of Friday, Aug. 27, 2021. Forecasters expect Ida to strengthen into a major hurricane before it takes aim at the U.S. Gulf Coast this weekend.National Hurricane Center
2 more storms brewing
The National Hurricane Center is also monitoring two tropical waves in the Atlantic that could develop into named storms during the next few days. But neither one of those is expected to pose a threat to the United States.
One is an area of low pressure over the central Atlantic, about 600 miles east of Bermuda, which is generating rain showers and thunderstorms on Friday.
“The system is expected to drift eastward today and Saturday, then accelerate northeastward on Sunday toward the central-north Atlantic,” the hurricane center says.
Forecasters say this system has a 50% percent chance of turning into a tropical depression or named tropical storm in the next two days and a 60% chance within five days.
The other area being watched is midway between the Cabo Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles, where a tropical wave is generating some showers and thunderstorms, the NHC says. “Gradual development of this system is expected, however, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next couple of days before it moves into an environment of stronger upper-level winds and slightly cooler waters.”
This system is expected to move west-northwestward on Friday before turning northward on Saturday, with forecasters saying there’s a 70% chance it will turn into a tropical depression or storm within two days and an 80% chance within five days.
Current weather radar
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Len Melisurgo may be reached at LMelisurgo@njadvancemedia.com.
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