We better get ready for at least a few days in early November that will feel like early December.
The cold air is expanding across central and southern Canada currently. All indications are some of that cold is going to shift south over Michigan and the Great Lakes around November 3 to November 5.
Here’s a forecast of surface temperature anomalies ending November 5.
Surface temperature anomaly forecast ending November 3, 2021
When we get to November 3, temperatures could be as cold as 12 degrees colder than normal.
Here are the long-term normal temperatures for November 3. In southern Michigan we average a high in the low-50s in the first few days of November. We typically drop to just above freezing in the mornings.
Long-term average high temperature for November 3.
Long-term average low temperature for November 3.
When the cold air makes it here in early November, the 12 degree colder than normal air would hold us to temperatures more typical of December 1.
Here are the high temperatures forecasted for November 3 by one of the better computer models.
High temperature forecast for Wednesday, November 3, 2021.
If we only warm to 40 degrees, the following morning will be cold.
Low temperature forecast for Thursday, November 4, 2021.
The first week of November could have our first solid freeze. This cold is notable because it could happen on a cloudy night. Remember- clouds typically help hold the temperature up some at night.
Cold air blowing over Great Lakes usually means northwest Lower Michigan and the Upper Peninsula get the first inch or two of snow. This should be the case this upcoming first week of November. The southwest snowbelt usually need even colder air for the precipitation to become accumulating snow.
Is this an early transition into full-blown, permanent winter weather? It doesn’t look like it right now. Sometime in the middle of November we should return to warmer than normal. Of course, warmer than normal by mid-November would mean only afternoon temperatures in the 50s to near 60 degrees.
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October 27, 2021 at 04:59AM
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Shot of early December cold to start November, could bring patches of snow - MLive.com
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