Fred strengthened into a tropical storm again on Sunday morning and is forecast to make landfall Monday on the northern Gulf Coast, according to the National Hurricane Center.
The forecast path for Fred has shifted eastward, and the cone of uncertainty stretches from part of the Alabama coast to the Florida Panhandle.
Fred is a lopsided storm with its worst weather far to the east of its center.
Fred could bring heavy rain, flash flooding, strong winds and the threat for tornadoes to parts of the state early this week.
In addition there is a high risk for rip currents along the coast starting tonight, and a high surf advisory is in effect, according to the National Weather Service.
As of 10 a.m. CDT Sunday, Tropical Storm Fred was located about 335 miles south-southeast of Pensacola and were tracking to the north-northwest at 12 mph.
There are no tropical storm watches in effect for the Alabama coast. But a few inland counties in the southern part of the state have been put under a tropical storm watch, including Escambia, Geneva, Coffee, Dale and Covington. Houston and Dale counties are now also under a tropical storm watch as of 10 a.m.
Here’s a look at the counties in southeast Alabama under the watch (not pictured are Covington and Escambia):
The National Weather Service said winds of 30-40 mph with gusts up to 55 mph will be possible from Monday evening until Tuesday morning in the watch area.
The hurricane center issued a tropical storm watch for coastal areas from the Alabama-Florida border eastward to Ochlockonee, Fla., and said part of that area will be upgraded to a warning this morning.
The hurricane center said additional eastward track shifts may be possible today.
Fred could have 50 mph winds by the time it moves onshore, but it will bring more rain than anything else for Alabama.
The National Weather Service has issued flash flood watches for some of Alabama’s southern counties and said up to 3 to 5 of rain will be possible this week.
A flash flood watch will be in effect for Geneva, Henry, Houston, Coffee and Dale counties in southeast Alabama from this evening until Tuesday afternoon.
A separate flash flood watch will be in effect for Crenshaw and Covington counties until Tuesday afternoon. Three to 5 inches will be possible in those counties as well, according to the National Weather Service in Mobile.
Fred could also bring the risk for a few tornadoes to parts of south Alabama from late today through at least Monday, according to the weather service. Monday’s severe weather outlook has a marginal risk (Level 1 out of 5) for all of south Alabama and part of south-central Alabama:
Tornadoes will be possible in the areas in dark green as rain bands from Fred move inland on Monday.
What about areas farther inland?
The National Weather Service in Birmingham said gusty winds and heavy rain will be possible in central Alabama as Fred or its remnants move northward through the state on Tuesday.
Areas in east-central Alabama could see the most rain, 2 to 3.5 inches, but it could fall over 12 to 18 hours so flooding may not be an issue.
Forecasters are watching for the possibility of tornadoes but as of Sunday morning the risk is on the low side.
Farther north, the National Weather Service in Huntsville said widespread rain and storms will be possible across north Alabama Monday and Tuesday as Fred or its remnants approach the region.
If Fred’s track holds then 2 to 3 inches of rain will be possible, with isolated areas in northeast Alabama. possibly getting up to 4 inches.
Forecasters said heavy rain could cause localized flash flooding.
How much rain the region gets will depend on Fred’s track. An eastward shift would keep the heaviest rain out of the area.
Fred is expected to move out of the state by Wednesday, but it will leave a tropical airmass in place and rain chances will stay on the high side statewide through the rest of the workweek.
Forecasters will also be keeping an eye on Tropical Storm Grace, which is currently forecast to move into the Gulf of Mexico by mid-week.
It’s too soon to say what will happen with Grace or where it could go.
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Fred expected to bring a lot of rain to parts of Alabama - AL.com
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